Commodity price shocks and inflationary pressures: evidence from a Bayesian structural VAR model for Turkiye
| dc.authorid | 0000-0001-8236-9810 | |
| dc.contributor.author | Can, Ufuk | |
| dc.contributor.author | Topcu, Mert | |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2026-01-24T12:31:27Z | |
| dc.date.available | 2026-01-24T12:31:27Z | |
| dc.date.issued | 2025 | |
| dc.department | Alanya Alaaddin Keykubat Üniversitesi | |
| dc.description.abstract | This paper investigates the transmission of commodity price shocks to inflation and inflation expectations in T & uuml;rkiye. Employing a Bayesian structural vector autoregression (SVAR) approach, we present both impulse-response functions and counterfactual analysis. Empirical findings reveal that producer inflation is more sensitive to fluctuations in commodity prices than consumer inflation. Moreover, commodity price fluctuations notably impact short-term inflation expectations, particularly for the real sector and households, but exert limited influence on long-term expectations. Counterfactual analysis confirms the substantial role of commodity prices in recent inflationary episodes. These findings underscore the influence of commodity prices on inflation-linked variables, thereby emphasizing the necessity for policymakers to adopt a proactive stance in their monitoring of these dynamics. | |
| dc.identifier.doi | 10.1080/13504851.2025.2546060 | |
| dc.identifier.issn | 1350-4851 | |
| dc.identifier.issn | 1466-4291 | |
| dc.identifier.scopus | 2-s2.0-105012929705 | |
| dc.identifier.scopusquality | Q2 | |
| dc.identifier.uri | https://doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2025.2546060 | |
| dc.identifier.uri | https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12868/5898 | |
| dc.identifier.wos | WOS:001548319100001 | |
| dc.identifier.wosquality | Q3 | |
| dc.indekslendigikaynak | Web of Science | |
| dc.indekslendigikaynak | Scopus | |
| dc.language.iso | en | |
| dc.publisher | Routledge Journals, Taylor & Francis Ltd | |
| dc.relation.ispartof | Applied Economics Letters | |
| dc.relation.publicationcategory | Makale - Uluslararası Hakemli Dergi - Kurum Öğretim Elemanı | |
| dc.rights | info:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccess | |
| dc.snmz | KA_WoS_20260121 | |
| dc.subject | Commodity prices | |
| dc.subject | inflation | |
| dc.subject | inflation expectations | |
| dc.subject | Bayesian SVAR | |
| dc.subject | Turkiye | |
| dc.title | Commodity price shocks and inflationary pressures: evidence from a Bayesian structural VAR model for Turkiye | |
| dc.type | Article |
