Commodity price shocks and inflationary pressures: evidence from a Bayesian structural VAR model for Turkiye
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Tarih
2025
Yazarlar
Dergi Başlığı
Dergi ISSN
Cilt Başlığı
Yayıncı
Routledge Journals, Taylor & Francis Ltd
Erişim Hakkı
info:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccess
Özet
This paper investigates the transmission of commodity price shocks to inflation and inflation expectations in T & uuml;rkiye. Employing a Bayesian structural vector autoregression (SVAR) approach, we present both impulse-response functions and counterfactual analysis. Empirical findings reveal that producer inflation is more sensitive to fluctuations in commodity prices than consumer inflation. Moreover, commodity price fluctuations notably impact short-term inflation expectations, particularly for the real sector and households, but exert limited influence on long-term expectations. Counterfactual analysis confirms the substantial role of commodity prices in recent inflationary episodes. These findings underscore the influence of commodity prices on inflation-linked variables, thereby emphasizing the necessity for policymakers to adopt a proactive stance in their monitoring of these dynamics.
Açıklama
Anahtar Kelimeler
Commodity prices, inflation, inflation expectations, Bayesian SVAR, Turkiye
Kaynak
Applied Economics Letters
WoS Q Değeri
Q3
Scopus Q Değeri
Q2
