Evaluation of pre- and post-fire flood risk by analytical hierarchy process method: a case study for the 2021 wildfires in Bodrum, Turkey

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dc.authorid0000-0001-5955-3425
dc.authorid0000-0001-5807-5660
dc.authorid0000-0003-4632-9349
dc.authorid0000-0003-1243-8299
dc.authorid0000-0002-6456-4396
dc.authorid0000-0003-4509-6897
dc.authorid0000-0002-2419-7712
dc.contributor.authorYilmaz, Osman Salih
dc.contributor.authorAkyuz, Dilek Eren
dc.contributor.authorAksel, Murat
dc.contributor.authorDikici, Mehmet
dc.contributor.authorAkgul, Mehmet Adil
dc.contributor.authorYagci, Oral
dc.contributor.authorBalik Sanli, Fusun
dc.date.accessioned2026-01-24T12:30:59Z
dc.date.available2026-01-24T12:30:59Z
dc.date.issued2023
dc.departmentAlanya Alaaddin Keykubat Üniversitesi
dc.description.abstractWildfires are regarded as one of the devastating natural disturbances to natural ecosystems, and threatening the lives of many species. In July 2021, a wildfire took place in the Mediterranean region of Turkey in multiple areas. In Bodrum, a town with high touristic value and attraction, approximately 17,600 hectares of forest have been affected by the wildfire. In this study, the fire-affected areas were determined using an analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and geographical information system (GIS). Rainfall, slope, distance from the stream, pre- and post-fire land use and land cover, elevation, curvature, topographic wetness index, and lithology were selected as the governing variables for the AHP model. The contribution of each variable was determined from the literature. Based on the model, it was found that the area with a very high flood risk increased from 8.6 to 18.4%, implying flood risk in a particular region doubled following the wildfire. Immediately after the forest fire, floods occurred in Mazikoy in the region and its surroundings. The model accuracy was tested by using randomly selected 61 points in and around the flooded area. The model accuracy was quantified by the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves method. Pre- and post-fire areas under curve (AUC) values were found 0.925 and 0.933, respectively, which implies that the prediction ability of the model is acceptably accurate. The study revealed that the model could quantify the increased flood risk for vulnerable areas after a forest fire. Such knowledge may aid local authorities in determining the priorities of the precautions that need to be taken after a forest fire.
dc.identifier.doi10.1007/s11355-023-00545-x
dc.identifier.endpage288
dc.identifier.issn1860-1871
dc.identifier.issn1860-188X
dc.identifier.issue2
dc.identifier.scopus2-s2.0-85147579820
dc.identifier.scopusqualityQ2
dc.identifier.startpage271
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1007/s11355-023-00545-x
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12868/5562
dc.identifier.volume19
dc.identifier.wosWOS:000926374600001
dc.identifier.wosqualityQ2
dc.indekslendigikaynakWeb of Science
dc.indekslendigikaynakScopus
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherSpringer Japan Kk
dc.relation.ispartofLandscape and Ecological Engineering
dc.relation.publicationcategoryMakale - Uluslararası Hakemli Dergi - Kurum Öğretim Elemanı
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccess
dc.snmzKA_WoS_20260121
dc.subjectAnalytical hierarchy process
dc.subjectBodrum
dc.subjectFlood vulnerability
dc.subjectGIS
dc.subjectWildfire
dc.titleEvaluation of pre- and post-fire flood risk by analytical hierarchy process method: a case study for the 2021 wildfires in Bodrum, Turkey
dc.typeArticle

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