Finansal başarısızlığın tahmininde Altman ve Springate modeli uygulaması: BIST Otomotiv sektörü üzerine bir uygulama
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Dosyalar
Tarih
2024
Yazarlar
Dergi Başlığı
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Yayıncı
Alanya Alaaddin Keykubat Üniversitesi / Lisansüstü Eğitim Enstitüsü
Erişim Hakkı
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
Özet
Otomotiv sektörünün Dünya ekonomisinde büyük bir paya sahip olduğu bilinmektedir. Her sektörde olduğu gibi otomotiv sektöründe de şirketlerin geleceği ile ilgili tahminler yapması önem arz etmektedir. Dünya genelinde meydana gelen ekonomik krizler, savaşlar, salgınlar vb. neticesinde şirketlerin finansal durumlarında değişiklikler meydana gelir. Şirketlerin finansal durumları ile ilgili tahminler yatırımcılar için büyük öneme sahiptir. Finansal başarısızlık risk tahminlerinden en çok kullanılan Altman Z' Skor modeli ve Springate S skor modeli seçilmiştir. Çalışmamızda finansal başarısızlık kavramı ve nedenleri, Altman Z' modeli ve Springate S modeli ile ilgili tanımlar, tarihi gelişimleri ve modellerde kullanılan ölçütler anlatılmıştır. Bu çalışmada örneklem olarak 2020-2022 yılları arasında Borsa İstanbul'da işlem gören otomotiv sektörünün içerisinde bulunan 19 şirket ele alınmıştır. Şirketlere ait bilanço ve gelir tablosu verileri Kamuyu Aydınlatma Platformu üzerinden alınmıştır. Öncelikle her iki modelde kullanılan ölçütler belirlenmiş ve bu ölçütlere göre elde edilen veriler çıkarılmıştır. Altman Z' modeli bulgularına göre Covid-19 etkisinin bulunduğu 2020 yılında finansal açıdan 5 şirket riskli bölgede, 10 şirket ise gri bölgededir. Covid -19'un bittiği 2021 yılında 6 şirket riskli bölgede, 8 şirket gri bölgededir. 2022 yılında ise 4 şirket riskli bölgede, 12 şirket ise gri bölgededir. Springate S skor modeline göre 2020 yılında 10 şirketin riskli olduğu, 2021 yılında 10 şirketin riskli olduğu ve 2022 yılında 9 şirketin riskli bölgede olduğu görülmüştür. Elde edilen verilere bakıldığında Altman Z' skor modeli ile Springate S skor modelinin çoğunlukla uyumlu olduğu ve Covid-19 etkisinin otomotiv sektörünü finansal olarak çok fazla etkilemediği sonucuna varılmıştır.
It is known that the automotive industry has a large share in the world economy. As in every sector, it is important for companies to make predictions about their future in the automotive industry. Economic crises, wars, epidemics, etc. occurring around the world. As a result, changes occur in the financial situations of companies. Predictions about the financial situation of companies are of great importance for investors. Among the financial failure risk predictions, the most commonly used Altman Z' Score model and the Springate S model were selected. In our study, the concept and causes of financial failure, the definitions of the Altman Z' model and the Springate model, their historical development and the criteria used in the models are explained. In this study, 19 companies in the automotive industry traded on Borsa Istanbul between 2020-2022 were considered as a sample. Balance sheet and income statement data of the companies were obtained through the Public Disclosure Platform. First of all, the criteria used in both models were determined and the data obtained according to these criteria were extracted. According to the Altman Z' model, in 2020 with the impact of Covid-19, 5 companies are in the financially risky zone and 10 companies are in the gray zone. In 2021, when Covid-19 is over, 6 companies are in the risk zone and 8 companies are in the gray zone. In 2022, 4 companies are in the risky zone and 12 companies are in the gray zone. According to the Springate S score model, it was observed that 10 companies were risky in 2020, 10 companies were risky in 2021, and 9 companies were in the risky region in 2022. Looking at the data obtained, it was concluded that the Altman Z' score model and the Springate S score model are mostly compatible and the Covid-19 effect did not financially affect the automotive industry much.
It is known that the automotive industry has a large share in the world economy. As in every sector, it is important for companies to make predictions about their future in the automotive industry. Economic crises, wars, epidemics, etc. occurring around the world. As a result, changes occur in the financial situations of companies. Predictions about the financial situation of companies are of great importance for investors. Among the financial failure risk predictions, the most commonly used Altman Z' Score model and the Springate S model were selected. In our study, the concept and causes of financial failure, the definitions of the Altman Z' model and the Springate model, their historical development and the criteria used in the models are explained. In this study, 19 companies in the automotive industry traded on Borsa Istanbul between 2020-2022 were considered as a sample. Balance sheet and income statement data of the companies were obtained through the Public Disclosure Platform. First of all, the criteria used in both models were determined and the data obtained according to these criteria were extracted. According to the Altman Z' model, in 2020 with the impact of Covid-19, 5 companies are in the financially risky zone and 10 companies are in the gray zone. In 2021, when Covid-19 is over, 6 companies are in the risk zone and 8 companies are in the gray zone. In 2022, 4 companies are in the risky zone and 12 companies are in the gray zone. According to the Springate S score model, it was observed that 10 companies were risky in 2020, 10 companies were risky in 2021, and 9 companies were in the risky region in 2022. Looking at the data obtained, it was concluded that the Altman Z' score model and the Springate S score model are mostly compatible and the Covid-19 effect did not financially affect the automotive industry much.
Açıklama
Anahtar Kelimeler
Otomotiv Sektörü, Altman Z' Skor Modeli, Springate S Skor Modeli, Automotive industry, Altman Z' Score Model, Springate S Score Model
