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Öğe BILATERAL J-CURVE BETWEEN TURKEY AND THE EUROZONE(2022) Özdemir, Salih; Topcu, Mert; Emirmahmutoglu, FurkanA large body of the literature use aggregate data to investigate the validity of the J-curve hypothesis. Recent studies, however, address to the importance of disaggregated data in order to prevent from aggregation bias. In the case of Turkey where foreign trade volume is largely dominated by the Eurozone countries, one set of studies examines the J-curve phenomenon using total trade data while a second set of studies investigates the validity of the bilateral J-curve within a time-series framework. This study intends to investigate the validity of the bilateral J-curve between Turkey and the Eurozone over the period 2002:Q1-2019:Q4 within a dynamic panel data framework robust to heterogeneity and cross-section dependence. Results obtained from the Dynamic Common Correlated Effects estimator reveal that the J-Curve hypothesis does not hold given the short-run results.Öğe BILATERAL J-CURVE BETWEEN TURKEY AND THE EUROZONE(Mehmet Akif Ersoy Univ, 2022) Ozdemir, Salih; Topcu, Mert; Emirmahmutoglu, FurkanA large body of the literature use aggregate data to investigate the validity of the J-curve hypothesis. Recent studies, however, address the importance of disaggregated data in order to prevent aggregation bias. In the case of Turkey where foreign trade volume is largely dominated by the Eurozone countries, one set of studies examines the J-curve phenomenon using total trade data while the second set of studies investigates the validity of the bilateral J-curve within a time-series framework. This study intends to investigate the validity of the bilateral J-curve between Turkey and the Eurozone over the period 2002:Q1-2019:Q4 within a dynamic panel data framework robust to heterogeneity and cross-section dependence. Results obtained from the Dynamic Common Correlated Effects estimator reveal that the J-Curve hypothesis does not hold given the short-run results.Öğe Climate policy uncertainty and green bond markets(Iop Publishing Ltd, 2025) Gulal, Omer Serkan; Topcu, Mert; Emirmahmutoglu, Furkan; Daud, Abdikani FarahUsing monthly data from July 2013 to April 2023, this study applies a time-varying causality approach to examine the relationship between climate policy uncertainty and the green bond market. During the episode December 2016 - December 2018, a negative bi-directional relationship is found, suggesting that higher green bond returns contributed to a reduction in policy uncertainty, fostering a more stable investment environment. However, during the COVID-19 pandemic, the relationship shifted, showing that increased green bond returns were associated with higher CPU, reflecting investor concerns about regulatory responses in times of crisis. Overall, the study emphasizes the importance of considering the time-varying nature of the CPU-green bond nexus while developing consistent and supportive climate policies to sustain the growth of green finance.Öğe Commodity price shocks and inflationary pressures: evidence from a Bayesian structural VAR model for Turkiye(Routledge Journals, Taylor & Francis Ltd, 2025) Can, Ufuk; Topcu, MertThis paper investigates the transmission of commodity price shocks to inflation and inflation expectations in T & uuml;rkiye. Employing a Bayesian structural vector autoregression (SVAR) approach, we present both impulse-response functions and counterfactual analysis. Empirical findings reveal that producer inflation is more sensitive to fluctuations in commodity prices than consumer inflation. Moreover, commodity price fluctuations notably impact short-term inflation expectations, particularly for the real sector and households, but exert limited influence on long-term expectations. Counterfactual analysis confirms the substantial role of commodity prices in recent inflationary episodes. These findings underscore the influence of commodity prices on inflation-linked variables, thereby emphasizing the necessity for policymakers to adopt a proactive stance in their monitoring of these dynamics.Öğe Determinants of Credit Risk in the Turkish Banking Sector: Does Ownership Matter?(2023) Yaglı, Ibrahım; Topcu, MertThis study aims to determine the internal and external factors affecting credit risk in the Turkish banking sector from 2003-2018. Unlike previous literature, we employ the Augmented Mean Group estimator with allowance for heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependence to analyse the effect of external factors within a dynamic framework. Findings indicate that internal and external factors affect credit risk, and the impact of these factors varies dramatically across ownership structures. These results suggest that one regulation does not fit all to overhaul credit risk management in the Turkish banking sector.Öğe Determinants of Credit Risk in the Turkish Banking Sector: Does Ownership Matter?(Sosyoekonomi Soc, 2023) Yagli, Ibrahim; Topcu, MertThis study aims to determine the internal and external factors affecting credit risk in the Turkish banking sector from 2003-2018. Unlike previous literature, we employ the Augmented Mean Group estimator with allowance for heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependence to analyse the effect of external factors within a dynamic framework. Findings indicate that internal and external factors affect credit risk, and the impact of these factors varies dramatically across ownership structures. These results suggest that one regulation does not fit all to overhaul credit risk management in the Turkish banking sector.Öğe Exploring the role of socio-economic factors in European Green Deal performance(Cambridge Univ Press, 2025) Topcu, Mert; Ozdemir, Salih; Demirel, NeslihanThe European Green Deal (EGD) provides a strategic framework for the European Union's (EU) transition to climate neutrality by 2050. Yet, limited integration of socio-economic dimensions may hinder its long-term success and fairness. This study investigates the indirect impacts of socio-economic factors on EGD performance by constructing a Green Deal Performance Index (GDPI) using a multi-criteria decision-making approach for 22 EU countries over 2010-2020. We then apply an instrumental variable regression approach to estimate how emissions, shaped by structural socio-economic conditions, affect the GDPI. Our results show that the negative impact of emissions is nearly 47 times larger when socio-economic dynamics are ignored. These findings underscore the necessity of inclusive policymaking for achieving carbon neutrality, contributing to discussions on ensuring a just transition by highlighting the critical role of socio-economic dynamics. We also present implications for policymakers developing fair and equitable strategies promoting sustainability and social justice in this context.Öğe Financial market development and carbon emissions: The transmission mechanisms and the role of political corruption(Academic Press Inc Elsevier Science, 2024) Topcu, MertThis study suggests an indirect effect of the financial markets on the environment and explores the transmission mechanisms through which financial market development affects carbon emissions in China. We identify three key mechanisms: i) sustainability, ii) production, and iii) consumption. Our results document that the sustainability mechanism helps mitigate emissions whereas the production mechanism triggers environmental degradation, and the impact of the latter is greater than the former in magnitude. However, once the negative externality of political corruption on financial market development is considered, the beneficial environmental effect dominates the degradation effect.Öğe Good governance and the us tourism demand(Elsevier, 2023) Topcu, Mert; Denaux, Zulal; Crews, CoriOur research empirically examines the impact of good governance on the US tourism demand over the period 1999-2020. We use a data set of 13 different tourism markets to avoid any aggregation bias while controlling for economic and political factors. Our empirical results show that two dimensions of governance, i) the political stability and absence of violence/terrorism and ii) government effectiveness, exert a statistically significant positive impact on the US tourism demand. We also find that the party in control of the White House has a statistically significant influence on tourism demand. These empirical findings have several implications for accurate demand forecasting as well as developing sustainable tourism policies.Öğe Governance quality vs. stimulus size: fiscal policy effectiveness during the COVID-19 pandemic(Inst Public Finance - Croatia, 2025) Topcu, Mert; Gulsen, Mustafa AlpinMER Given the importance of good governance for the efficiency ofgovernmentspend-ing, this study reveals the role of governance quality in fiscal policy effectiveness during the COVID-19 outbreak. Using cross-country threshold regressions for 144 countries, we find that a stringent lockdown policy (i) does not lead to economic downturn in countries with larger fiscal stimulus, (ii) leads countries with poor governance quality to head toward economic slowdown even with higher stimulus packages, (iii) does contribute to economic recovery even in countries with smaller fiscal packages if accompanied by higher governance quality. Overall, the results suggest that good governance helps achieve economic recovery, whereas an increase in the size of the fiscal stimulus can, at best, help protect against economic slowdown. The empirical findings have several implications for policymakers in countries where the blow hits the hardest, as well as for fiscalgovernance framework.Öğe Kim, Neden Çalışmak İstemez? Betimsel Bir Analiz(Economic and Financial Research Association, 2024) Topcu, Mert; Biçimveren, LütfiTürkiye'de işgücü piyasası üzerine yapılan çalışmalar genellikle işsizlik, istihdam veya cinsiyet eşitsizliği gibi konulara odaklanmaktadır. Bu çalışma, işgücü dışındaki kalabalığın nedenlerini analitik bir şekilde inceleyerek literatüre katkı sağlamayı hedeflemektedir. Bu katkı doğrultusunda çalışmanın temel amacı, işgücü istatistikleri tarafından sunulan sınıflandırmayı dikkate alarak, işgücü dışında kalanların sunduğu gerekçeleri ve bu kişilerin demografik özelliklerini belirlemek amacıyla aktif nüfusun işgücü durumunu incelemektedir. Bu doğrultuda 2014-2019 döneminde İstatistiki Bölge Birimleri Sınıflandırması-II altında yer alan 26 bölge verileri üzerinden betimsel bir analiz yapılmıştır. Bulgular, işgücü piyasasının dışında kalan en kalabalık grubun ev hanımlarından oluştuğunu ve bu grubun Avrupa'daki bazı ülkelerin toplam nüfusundan bile fazla olduğunu göstermektedir. Ayrıca, ev işleriyle uğraşan kadınların genellikle düşük eğitim seviyesine sahip oldukları dikkat çekmektedir.Öğe Political stability, geopolitical risks, and bank stability(Academic Press Inc Elsevier Science, 2025) Topcu, Mert; Can, UfukBanking fragility in developing countries often stems from political instability and geopolitical risks. Referring collectively to both risks as foundational risks, this paper examines the impact of these risks on bank stability in developing countries. We employ panel quantile regressions and uncover that foundational risks exert asymmetric effects across the distribution of bank soundness. An increase in political stability and a reduction in geopolitical risks significantly strengthen banks' resilience, particularly among the most vulnerable banks. Moreover, a rise in foundational risks intensifies fragility without triggering systemic collapse. These findings offer a fresh perspective for regulators seeking targeted resilience strategies in uncertain political and geopolitical landscapes.Öğe Rethinking the Environmental Kuznets Curve: Quantity Growth vs. Quality Growth(Taylor and Francis, 2023) Kuloğlu, Ayhan; Topcu, MertExisting literature on the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis uses conventional growth rate as a proxy for economic growth to investigate the validity of the EKC hypothesis. Given, however, that economic development requires a more inclusive concept than economic growth, recent studies address the importance of high-quality growth in the process of economic development. Therefore, this study uses a quality growth index to revisit the EKC hypothesis in the United States over the period 1991-2018. Estimation results reveal the validity of the EKC hypothesis, regardless of the growth proxy. However, inflection points indicate that environmental degradation reacts to the quality growth index even before economic growth. Overall, the findings reveal the significance of the social dimension alongside growth fundamentals in reducing carbon emissions and contributing to environmental quality. These results have potentially significant implications for environmental policies. One of the major implications is that the quality growth index has the potential to be a valuable addition, providing additional perspectives on social well-being by addressing environmental costs more effectively, and that energy conservation policies imposed in order to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions may fall short of intended targets if the projections rely only on income growth. © 2024 selection and editorial matter, Ayhan Kuloğlu and Mert Topcu.Öğe Revisiting the financial development and economic growth nexus: Evidence from south Korea(Economics Bulletin, 2023) Denaux, Zulal; Topcu, Mert; Emirmahmutoglu, FurkanThis study revisits the financial development and economic growth nexus in South Korea using quarterly data from 1983Q1 to 2021Q3. Due to the dynamic nature of the relationship between economic growth and the financial development in South Korea over the study period, the recursive evolving window procedure of the time-varying Granger causality test is used for the estimation. Considering the possible negative effect of financial development on economic growth, the directions of the cause and effects are also calculated over different episodes. Positive causality episodes from growth to financial development are detected in the period leading to the financial crisis in 1997 and the ending period of drastic liberalization measures in the early 2000s. Interestingly, the positive effect of economic growth on financial development vanished, and the effect of financial development on real economy became negative in mid 2000s.Öğe Thresholds in the Technology-Driven Renewable Energy Transition(Amer Chemical Soc, 2023) Topcu, Mert; Turgut, CanThis study examines the nonlinear impacts of technological development on the renewable energy transition in 54 countries from 2002 to 2019. The empirical findings indicate the following: (i) An increase in technology leads to an increase in renewable energy production in high-income countries, whereas technological development triggers nonrenewable energy production in low-income countries. (ii) Small government size and low levels of financial development hurt the technology-driven renewable transition in low-income countries, while large government size and greater levels of financial development crowd out the stimulative effects of technology on the clean transition in high-income countries. (iii) The highest volatility in the technology elasticity of renewable production comes from countries with different governance qualities. (iv) The renewable energy transition process entails a larger per capita income in high-income countries than in low-income countries.
