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    Öğe
    Commodity price shocks and inflationary pressures: evidence from a Bayesian structural VAR model for Turkiye
    (Routledge Journals, Taylor & Francis Ltd, 2025) Can, Ufuk; Topcu, Mert
    This paper investigates the transmission of commodity price shocks to inflation and inflation expectations in T & uuml;rkiye. Employing a Bayesian structural vector autoregression (SVAR) approach, we present both impulse-response functions and counterfactual analysis. Empirical findings reveal that producer inflation is more sensitive to fluctuations in commodity prices than consumer inflation. Moreover, commodity price fluctuations notably impact short-term inflation expectations, particularly for the real sector and households, but exert limited influence on long-term expectations. Counterfactual analysis confirms the substantial role of commodity prices in recent inflationary episodes. These findings underscore the influence of commodity prices on inflation-linked variables, thereby emphasizing the necessity for policymakers to adopt a proactive stance in their monitoring of these dynamics.
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    Öğe
    Political stability, geopolitical risks, and bank stability
    (Academic Press Inc Elsevier Science, 2025) Topcu, Mert; Can, Ufuk
    Banking fragility in developing countries often stems from political instability and geopolitical risks. Referring collectively to both risks as foundational risks, this paper examines the impact of these risks on bank stability in developing countries. We employ panel quantile regressions and uncover that foundational risks exert asymmetric effects across the distribution of bank soundness. An increase in political stability and a reduction in geopolitical risks significantly strengthen banks' resilience, particularly among the most vulnerable banks. Moreover, a rise in foundational risks intensifies fragility without triggering systemic collapse. These findings offer a fresh perspective for regulators seeking targeted resilience strategies in uncertain political and geopolitical landscapes.