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    CHALLANGES AND PROSPECTS FOR TOMATO PRODUCTIVITY IN RESPONSE TO CLIMATIC VARIATIONS: EVIDNECES FROM KHYBER PAKHTUNKHWA-PAKISTAN
    (Balkan Scientific Assoc Agrarian Economists, 2023) Yousaf, Rabbia; Ali, Shahid; Ullah, Irfan; Sha, Syed Attaullah; Ucak, Harun
    Climate change is the momentous and persisting change in the world's temperature, precipitation, humidity, and other climatic variables. This study, therefore estimated the impact of climatic variations on tomato productivity across agro ecological zones of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan. Panel data for 28 years (1991-2018) across the six districts of the agro ecological was used due to availability of data on tomato productivity and climatic variables. Yield of tomato, area, maximum temperature and rainfall were included in the final estimated model. The results indicate that the average maximum temperature and average maximum temperature square have a significant impact on tomato yield. Average maximum temperature has positive coefficient while the average maximum temperature square has a negative coefficient. This demonstrates that, at first, the tomato yield increases as the temperature rises. It reaches the maximum at the critical temperature (34.95 degrees C) but shows a decline once the temperature rises from the critical value.
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    EXAMINING FRUIT DEMAND ELASTICITIES IN PAKISTAN
    (Sciendo, 2023) Iqbal, Sarah; Fayaz, Muhammad; Ullah, Irfan; Uçak, Harun; Shah, Syed Attaullah; Sayam, Farheen
    Research background: Income and prices are important factors that determine and decide households consumption decisions and behavior. Purpose and research methodology: This paper aims to examine fruits’ demand elasticities in Pakistan by using the Linear Approximate Almost Ideal Demand System (LA/AIDS). For this purpose, data from the Household Integrated Economic Survey (HIES) 2018–2019 part of Pakistan Living Standard and Measurement is used for the selected fruits. Results: Marshallian, Hicksian, and expenditures elasticities were calculated through the estimated parameter from the Linear Approximate Almost Ideal demand system. The results show that all the estimated expenditure elasticities of the selected fruits for Pakistan are positive. The magnitude of expenditure elasticities for bananas, malta, apple, grapes, watermelon, plum, and almonds, is less than unity, and are thus categorized as normal food items. The estimated uncompensated own price demand elasticities for all fruits are less than unity (inelastic) for Pakistan and thus categorized as necessities. Based on the cross-price uncompensated demand elasticities eighteen fruits are reported as gross complements and three fruits are gross substitutes. Most of the fruits are categorized as neutral fruits having no cross-price effect on each other’s demand as their estimated elasticities are closer to zero. Only apples with grapes and almonds are found to be notable substitutes. As most of the price elasticities of fruits are inelastic, any change in their price would result in a massive increase in expenditure on these fruits. As a result, the government may adopt policies for the stabilization of fruit prices to meet the minimal daily food requirements of the lower segments of society. Novelty: This study is an attempt to estimate demand elasticities for individual fruit as very little research is available in the study area for individual commodities. © 2023 Sciendo. All rights reserved.
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    The volatility connectedness between fertilizers and rice price: evidences from the global major rice-producing countries
    (Springernature, 2024) Ucak, Harun; Ullah, Irfan; Ari, Yakup
    This study examined the volatility connectedness between rice price and selected fertilizer commodity products among global rice-producing countries that are mainly in the Asian and Pacific regions. For this purpose, natural gas, selected fertilizers, rice monthly price data, and commodity volatilities were estimated by exponential weighted moving average (EWMA). Furthermore, the connectedness of the volatilities were demonstrated by applying the TVP-VAR-based Diebold-Yilmaz approach. First, we constructed eight separate networks for each country and then determined the total connectedness index (TCI), net pairwise directional connectedness (NPDC), and pairwise connectedness index (PCI). The average TCI for all countries varied between 40 and 55%. The dynamic TCIs showed that the impact of food price volatility from 2007 to 2008 persisted until 2009. Connectedness across all networks was seen to decline after 2010, dropping to 40% or lower. Upon analyzing bilateral interconnectivity through the lens of the PCI values, a robust connectedness between triple superphosphate fertilizer price volatility and Bangladesh, Brazil, China, and Pakistan was evident. The interconnectedness of urea fertilizer and natural gas volatility with rice price volatility, along with the substitution relationships between other fertilizers, offers valuable information for investors to construct portfolios.
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