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    BILATERAL J-CURVE BETWEEN TURKEY AND THE EUROZONE
    (2022) Özdemir, Salih; Topcu, Mert; Emirmahmutoglu, Furkan
    A large body of the literature use aggregate data to investigate the validity of the J-curve hypothesis. Recent studies, however, address to the importance of disaggregated data in order to prevent from aggregation bias. In the case of Turkey where foreign trade volume is largely dominated by the Eurozone countries, one set of studies examines the J-curve phenomenon using total trade data while a second set of studies investigates the validity of the bilateral J-curve within a time-series framework. This study intends to investigate the validity of the bilateral J-curve between Turkey and the Eurozone over the period 2002:Q1-2019:Q4 within a dynamic panel data framework robust to heterogeneity and cross-section dependence. Results obtained from the Dynamic Common Correlated Effects estimator reveal that the J-Curve hypothesis does not hold given the short-run results.
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    Öğe
    BILATERAL J-CURVE BETWEEN TURKEY AND THE EUROZONE
    (Mehmet Akif Ersoy Univ, 2022) Ozdemir, Salih; Topcu, Mert; Emirmahmutoglu, Furkan
    A large body of the literature use aggregate data to investigate the validity of the J-curve hypothesis. Recent studies, however, address the importance of disaggregated data in order to prevent aggregation bias. In the case of Turkey where foreign trade volume is largely dominated by the Eurozone countries, one set of studies examines the J-curve phenomenon using total trade data while the second set of studies investigates the validity of the bilateral J-curve within a time-series framework. This study intends to investigate the validity of the bilateral J-curve between Turkey and the Eurozone over the period 2002:Q1-2019:Q4 within a dynamic panel data framework robust to heterogeneity and cross-section dependence. Results obtained from the Dynamic Common Correlated Effects estimator reveal that the J-Curve hypothesis does not hold given the short-run results.
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    Öğe
    Climate policy uncertainty and green bond markets
    (Iop Publishing Ltd, 2025) Gulal, Omer Serkan; Topcu, Mert; Emirmahmutoglu, Furkan; Daud, Abdikani Farah
    Using monthly data from July 2013 to April 2023, this study applies a time-varying causality approach to examine the relationship between climate policy uncertainty and the green bond market. During the episode December 2016 - December 2018, a negative bi-directional relationship is found, suggesting that higher green bond returns contributed to a reduction in policy uncertainty, fostering a more stable investment environment. However, during the COVID-19 pandemic, the relationship shifted, showing that increased green bond returns were associated with higher CPU, reflecting investor concerns about regulatory responses in times of crisis. Overall, the study emphasizes the importance of considering the time-varying nature of the CPU-green bond nexus while developing consistent and supportive climate policies to sustain the growth of green finance.
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    Revisiting the financial development and economic growth nexus: Evidence from south Korea
    (Economics Bulletin, 2023) Denaux, Zulal; Topcu, Mert; Emirmahmutoglu, Furkan
    This study revisits the financial development and economic growth nexus in South Korea using quarterly data from 1983Q1 to 2021Q3. Due to the dynamic nature of the relationship between economic growth and the financial development in South Korea over the study period, the recursive evolving window procedure of the time-varying Granger causality test is used for the estimation. Considering the possible negative effect of financial development on economic growth, the directions of the cause and effects are also calculated over different episodes. Positive causality episodes from growth to financial development are detected in the period leading to the financial crisis in 1997 and the ending period of drastic liberalization measures in the early 2000s. Interestingly, the positive effect of economic growth on financial development vanished, and the effect of financial development on real economy became negative in mid 2000s.