Arı, Yakup2026-01-242026-01-24202097817998223949781799822400https://doi.org/10.4018/978-1-7998-2239-4.ch004https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12868/4714The purpose of this study is to put out the impact of volatility of the USD-TRY forex rate on imports to Turkey from Central Asia. The volatility of the USD/TRY exchange rate is analysed with a conditional variance model which is Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (GARCH) model and its extensions. The other section of the methodology is an application of Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds test which is an efficient approach to determine the cointegration, long-term and short-term relations between macroeconomic variables. The exponential GARCH volatility of the exchange rate and the monthly trade data between the years 2005 and 2018 are used in the ARDL bounds test. © 2020 by IGI Global. All rights reserved.eninfo:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccessBook Chapter10.4018/978-1-7998-2239-4.ch00470892-s2.0-85136907152N/A