Topcu, MertOzdemir, SalihDemirel, Neslihan2026-01-242026-01-2420250376-89291469-4387https://doi.org/10.1017/S0376892925100106https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12868/5817The European Green Deal (EGD) provides a strategic framework for the European Union's (EU) transition to climate neutrality by 2050. Yet, limited integration of socio-economic dimensions may hinder its long-term success and fairness. This study investigates the indirect impacts of socio-economic factors on EGD performance by constructing a Green Deal Performance Index (GDPI) using a multi-criteria decision-making approach for 22 EU countries over 2010-2020. We then apply an instrumental variable regression approach to estimate how emissions, shaped by structural socio-economic conditions, affect the GDPI. Our results show that the negative impact of emissions is nearly 47 times larger when socio-economic dynamics are ignored. These findings underscore the necessity of inclusive policymaking for achieving carbon neutrality, contributing to discussions on ensuring a just transition by highlighting the critical role of socio-economic dynamics. We also present implications for policymakers developing fair and equitable strategies promoting sustainability and social justice in this context.eninfo:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccessCarbon emissionsEuropean Green Dealsocio-economic factorsArticle10.1017/S03768929251001062-s2.0-105014090436Q1WOS:001554971700001Q2