Can, UfukTopcu, Mert2026-01-242026-01-2420251350-48511466-4291https://doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2025.2546060https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12868/5898This paper investigates the transmission of commodity price shocks to inflation and inflation expectations in T & uuml;rkiye. Employing a Bayesian structural vector autoregression (SVAR) approach, we present both impulse-response functions and counterfactual analysis. Empirical findings reveal that producer inflation is more sensitive to fluctuations in commodity prices than consumer inflation. Moreover, commodity price fluctuations notably impact short-term inflation expectations, particularly for the real sector and households, but exert limited influence on long-term expectations. Counterfactual analysis confirms the substantial role of commodity prices in recent inflationary episodes. These findings underscore the influence of commodity prices on inflation-linked variables, thereby emphasizing the necessity for policymakers to adopt a proactive stance in their monitoring of these dynamics.eninfo:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccessCommodity pricesinflationinflation expectationsBayesian SVARTurkiyeArticle10.1080/13504851.2025.25460602-s2.0-105012929705Q2WOS:001548319100001Q3