Estimation of future irrigation performance with times series analysis: a case study of Andırın, Kahramanmaraş, Turkey

Abstract

Performance indicators are used to identify the weaknesses and strengths of irrigation schemes. Until now, evaluations havebeen made using several different statistical methods to determine the performance of irrigation schemes. However, these methodsshowed the current performance of irrigation schemes and the statistical relationship between them. It is planned to provide adaptationof irrigation networks to climate change with state policies. Therefore, it is of great importance to estimate the future performanceof irrigation schemes. In this study, the future irrigation performance of the Andırın irrigation scheme in Kahramanmaraş provinceAndırın district was estimated using time series forecasting method. Using the data of the Andırın irrigation scheme between 2006and 2019, the selected performance indicators were estimated until 2025. When examining the results, they suggest that the irrigationscheme has not shown consistency in the past years, so the future performance of the irrigation scheme may be adversely affected.The high amount of irrigation water distributed to per unit irrigated area in this irrigation scheme will result in poor performance insubsequent years if measures such as modernization, transition to pressurized system and modern irrigation methods are not taken andimprovements are not made in the future.