A Mathematical modelling approach in the spread of the novel 2019 Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) pandemic

Abstract

The novel 2019 coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19), emerged towards the end of 2019 in the city of Wuhan in the province of Hubei in the People's Republic of China, and it has spread to the entire world very fast and in a very short time. This study aimed to investigate the course of the pandemic by mathematical modelling based on the information that the time-dependent change (spreading) rate of the H number of individuals who have caught a contagious disease is proportional to the multiplication of the numbers of those who have caught the disease and those who have not. According to the results of the mathematical modelling in our study, in the case that sufficient precautions are not taken, or precautions are reduced, the course of the pandemic may show a very fast change in the negative direction. For this reason, every precaution, individual or social, will be significant in terms of the course of the COVID-19 pandemic.