Analysis of SPI as a drought indicator during the maize growing period in the Cukurova Region (Turkey)
Özet
Abstract: One of the major challenges for agriculture related to climate change is drought. The
increasing temperatures and decreasing precipitation in many parts of the world have enhanced
the frequency and severity of drought events. Therefore, a detailed analysis is required in order
to determine the drought frequency and take the necessary precautions. In this study, the climatic
conditions in the agricultural region of Çukurova (Turkey) were analysed. Meteorological data
for the three provinces of Adana, Mersin, and Osmaniye were used. The aim was to calculate the
Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) for each of the three provinces analysed, and to use these
values to detect drought during the different growth periods of maize. We also investigated whether
the SPI values for the last 30 years differ significantly between the provinces. Furthermore, indicators
such as the duration, magnitude, severity, recurrence, and drought frequency were also calculated.
Using linear regression analysis, we determined whether there were trends in the multi-year data
for the total precipitation and mean temperature. In addition, the water deficiency was determined
by examining the amount of water required by maize and the adequacy of the precipitation in
each development period. As a result, it was found that the Çukurova region is prone to droughts,
but they follow a mild course in most cases. However, no statistically significant differences were
observed between the SPI values in the three provinces. The calculated average approximate drought
recurrences (Tr) and expected intensities (Iave) were Tr ~ 1.036 years and Iave ~ 5.634 mm year−1
in 3 years for Adana, Tr ~ 1.031 years and Iave ~ −0.312 mm year−1
in 3 years for Mersin, and
Tr ~ 1.052 years and Iave ~ −0.084 mm year−1
in 3 years Osmaniye. The research carried out in
this paper confirmed that maize cultivation in the Çukurova region is vulnerable to drought, and
adaptation actions should be taken immediately.
